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Put a Triangular Distribution on it and Call it Good?
If a builder came to your house to start renovation work clutching nothing but a hammer, you'd probably be a little concerned. He might try to assure you that he is very skilled with his hammer, but you’re still probably going to look for another builder who knows how to use a few more tools. Selecting the Appropriate Distributions for your Model
The precision of a complete risk analysis relies heavily on the appropriate use of probability distributions to accurately represent the uncertainty, randomness and variability of the problem. In our experience, inappropriate use of probability distributions has proven to be a very common failure of risk analysis models. It stems, in part, from an inadequate understanding of the theory behind probability distribution functions and, in part, from failing to appreciate the knock-on effects of using inappropriate distributions.
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Download our Guide to Probability Distributions We offer a free pdf guide to probability distributions that will help you find the most appropriate distribution for your problem. Download a copy of the guide here or contact us for a free, no-obligation web-based meeting to review your current risk management strategies at your company.
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