Consulting services

Over 25 years of risk analysis experience
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Introduction

The founders of Vose Software, David Vose and Timour Koupeev, had many years of risk analysis consultancy experience before starting Vose Software, and consultancy remains an integral part of our business. The founders started Vose Software because they found that the available risk analysis software products were often inadequate for their needs. The consultancy work we perform now is particularly important for our software development because it allows us to see how clients use our software, how we can improve our products, and what risk analysis tools are still missing.

Whilst we produce some of the most sophisticated quantitative risk analysis software available today, our approach to consultancy work is very focused on finding the best solutions with the least fuss. We look at the problem and consider how it might be solved independently from the software we offer. The solution might involve using no software at all, using other software products more suitable for the problem, or even competing software products if the occasion demands.

Model and report auditing and editing

Get the confidence that your risk analysis is as good as it can be

It is common knowledge that models without uncertainty often contain important errors. Monte Carlo simulation models are even more prone to errors because the numbers keep changing, the models need to account for that dynamic nature, and people frequently misunderstand the basics of probability calculations. Risk analysis models can also be built very inefficiently, or in a way that doesn’t provide the most useful information for the decision-maker.

We provide an independent auditing service to review a client's current model or planned modeling approach, or how to present of results (for example when a report may be going out to public review, will be used in a critical decision, or will be presented to a potentially hostile audience).

Model development

Commission a risk analysis model you can rely on

If you do not have sufficient time or expertise in risk analysis, or perhaps need to be sure your risk analysis model will stand up under very heavy scrutiny, we can help. We can build you an expert risk analysis model, complete with documentation and presentation material. In a risk modeling engagement, we typically start by signing an NDA provided by the client, followed by one or two discussions of the decision problem the client faces, the scope of the analysis, the data that are available, the timeframe and the budget. Then we send a draft proposal providing our understanding of the problem, the deliverables, any options there might be, what each party commits to provide, and the predicted cost. After some editing by both sides and an agreement to proceed, this is converted to a contract.

All risk models we build are vetted by our founder, David Vose, before release to the client, and come with his endorsement. David is an internationally recognised expert in quantitative risk analysis, the author of several seminal books on the subject as well as international guidelines and many peer-reviewed papers.

“It was a pleasure to work with the Vose team to build a revenue model for our pharmaceutical product candidates. They listened, hit our deadlines and produced a high-quality model on budget. Highly recommended!”

Karin M Hold, Director of Business Development
Anacor Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Expert witness services

Get a risk analysis expert to support your case

Vose Software provides expert witness services and litigation support. Our expertise and years of experience in risk analysis, combined with our consultancy neutrality, provide us with practical understanding, substantial credibility and the ability to explain complex risk analysis in simple terms, to a jury or judge. We are prepared to provide expert witness support, undertake research, organize teams of experts, and assist with litigation strategy.

Vose Software has provided expert witness services or served as a key risk adviser in several high profile international cases (WTO trade court, US federal court, Australian federal court, London Court of Arbitration). The court has found on the side of our client in every case we have been engaged with. We greatly value our reputation for providing an honest and unbiased opinion, and also value our unblemished record, so prior to engaging as an expert witness we require some initial investigation of the risk-based argument the client wishes to use before the court, and reserve the right to retract our services if we do not feel we can support such arguments.

Developing a risk management methodology

Get a comprehensive risk analysis process that works best for your business

Large companies will typically have small groups scattered through the business who have developed methods for assessing risk in their specific domains. This can present a challenge to senior management when these methods do not fall into a consistent methodology because many areas of risk may not be addressed, and the information that is produced in those areas that address risk may not be directly compatible. It is very common that senior management do not have a comprehensive overview of the risks their business faces and, as a result, are unable to effectively manage risk or demonstrate to investors or regulators that they do so. Vose Software can help you establish a risk management methodology that builds on the risk activities you already have in place, with the focus on designing a system that is flexible, easy-to-use, sustainable, consistent and comprehensive.

A typical engagement starts with a senior management discussion of risk appetite, governance, current risk analysis activities, gaps and problems. After reviewing some of the current risk analysis activities and discussions with managers and analysts, we can develop a proposal together with the various stakeholders for a risk identification, analysis, communication, management and reporting methodology that can be implemented rapidly and cost-effectively.

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